Not all Trump supporters think alike
What the data can tell us about different types of Trump supporters
Note: This was written as the answer to the question “What types of people make up the largest portion of Trump supporters?”
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Interesting question!
It’s really easy - and really difficult - to give a simple answer to this question. If you push someone to answer a question like this, they are likely to fall back on whatever their stereotype of a Trump supporter is, and then generalise from that. It’s easy, especially on the side I am, to say that all Trump supporters are either angry or stupid or selfish or some combination of these three. But this can actually be an interesting question if we try to find an objective answer to it. What are the types of people who support Trump?
Let’s try to find out.
I. Data and Definition
The CCES’ 2018 wave[1], a survey of 60,000 Americans, gives us respondent-level data on people’s opinions about a lot of issues in the US.
“Trump supporters”, of course, require some definition. If there was a feelings thermometer rating to go with, that would be our clear indicator of how people feel about him - but the CCES 2018 doesn't have that. So, our "Trump supporters" are people who think Trump is doing a really great job. The CCES 2018 asks: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?". The people who answer "Strongly Approve" to that question are treated here as Trump supporters. This gives us around 7k respondents.
Now I'm aware that this is an imperfect definition, because there may be people who approve of the job the President is doing but do not "support" him in the sense that the question asks. But I'm sticking with it for particular reasons: One, even this imperfect definition can illuminate key differences between people who evidently still approve of his job. Two, I assume that the imperfection is asymmetric: "Trump supporters" are almost all likely to strongly approve of the job he's doing, even if all those who strongly approve of the job he's doing aren't "Trump supporters". Basically, Trump supporters are likely a subset of my data, so I'm unlikely to be missing any of them. At worst, I'm classifying some people, who “strongly approve” of the job he's doing, as people who support him. If they disapprove of that they can, in the words of Sloss (2019), “write a blog about it”.[2] (Yes, that reference is, in fact, a comedy special. However, the reader should note that it is a fucking awesome comedy special.)
II. Methodology
If you’re interested in what I’m really doing here, all the code (and a better explanation of my methodology in a Jupyter notebook) can be found on my GitHub here. Below is a quick, rough outline of my method to find the different types of Trump supporters (it can be skipped if you’re not interested or pressed for time or have a debate to be bored through):
Say each respondent is a point in a huge space. The distance between two such points will be determined as a function of how many questions they agree on, vs how many they disagree. I’m considering only their political opinions for calculating this distance, because in my (subjective) view, that is arguably a better picture of the opinions different types of Trump supporters hold.
Cluster respondents based on their responses to these questions. Do they support banning all abortions? Do they support building a wall? Do they support corporate tax cuts? and so on exchethera. After trying out a few different parameters, I believe there are four main types of Trump supporters (this is again a subjective call). A cluster will give a group (type) of people who think a specific way (and hence agree significantly with each other).
Profile these clusters, using opinions as well as demographic data: essentially, look at what kind of opinions and social profiles form each cluster. That should give us an idea of the different types of Trump supporters.
The idea, in short, is to establish clusters of Trump supporters using their political opinions, and then profile them to understand their political as well as social identity.
III. Results
This clustering suggests that there are four types of Trump supporters. (This - and the subsequent names - are based on my profiling of the clusters, which I’ll present in the next section. The names are simply meant to make for easy memorisation, because they are easier to keep track of than cluster numbers.)
The biggest type by far are True Believers: people who are politically engaged, and agree with nearly all of Trump’s actions and policies. This is about 58% of his supporters. The second biggest group are socially conservative moderates. They form about 20%, and while they differ significantly from the Trump administration on economic and other policies, they strongly agree with Trump on racial issues and immigration. Another 15% of Trump supporters are Conservatives who support some of his economic policy, but oppose large sections of his other policies, such as withdrawing from the TPP. The last, smallest chunk are low-partisanship moderates, who “strongly approve” of Trump’s job but oppose nearly all of his actual policy. They form only about 7% of his supporters.
IV. Comparison
Note: In all these graphs: the positions corresponding to the Republicans are red, and the opposites are blue.
First, let’s establish basic political identities: How do these respondents identify, both in terms of partisanship and ideology?
1. Political Ideology:
Both the third and the fourth groups, as seen above, are much more likely to identify as “Middle of the Road”. The first two, on the other hand, mostly identify as “Conservative”.
2. Opinion on Collusion:
A more revealing question, which tells you a little more about these voters beyond their self-reported ideology, is about the biggest issue of the presidency. Right there, innocuously amid the other questions, sitsDo you think that Donald Trump colluded with Russian operatives to influence the 2016 election?
Today’s quote from a US president: “NO COLLUSION - RIGGED WITCH HUNT!”
- Donald Trump[3]
As seen here, the president’s strongest supporters overwhelmingly believe he did not collude with Russia, while the moderates are decidedly less sure.
3. News Interest
A possible cause for this may lie in the next question. The “True Believers” are a lot more tuned in than the moderates:
Question: Some people seem to follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs ...
As seen above, more than 40% of the “Low partisanship moderates” follow political news “Hardly at all” or “only now and then”, about twice that of the “True Believers”.
With these general profiles in mind, we can look at opinions across clusters on particular topics and issues.
4. Taxes
All of these cohorts support cutting taxes on Americans who earn less than $500k a year, at the least by a 56-point margin. You look at the other two scenarios asked - cutting taxes on people earning more than $500k a year, and cutting the Corporate Income Tax Rate, and a different picture emerges.
Question: Congress considered many changes in tax law over the past two years. Do you support or oppose each of the following:
Reduce the income tax rate for households earning more than $500,000 by 3 percent (from 40%to 37%)
The True Believers - well - believe in this. But both sets of moderates are much more likely to oppose cutting taxes on this income bracket.
Question: Congress considered many changes in tax law over the past two years. Do you support or oppose each of the following:
Cut the Corporate Income Tax rate from 39 percent to 21 percent.
A similar trend shows up here as well, though the moderates are a lot more equivocal on this issue.
5. Healthcare
An interesting divide shows up here as well.
Question: Thinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals?
Provide Medicare for all Americans.
The cohorts take similar positions on repealing Obamacare as well.
Question: Thinking now about health care policy, would you support or oppose each of the following proposals?
Repeal the entire Affordable Care Act.
These cohorts take similar positions on the environment, with the Conservatives mostly agreeing with Trump’s actions, and both groups of moderates not so much in favour.
6. Environment
Question: President Trump has issued many orders over the first year of his presidency. Do you support or oppose each of the following decisions?
Withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Question: Do you support or oppose each of the following proposals?
Strengthen the Environmental Protection Agency enforcement of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act even if it costs US jobs
This picture tells you a particular story so far - but it shifts on a few key issues. For instance, take Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the TPP:
Question: President Trump has issued many orders over the first year of his presidency. Do you support or oppose each of the following decisions?
Withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, a free trade agreement that included the US, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Canada, Chile, others.
This is an issue on which the conservatives side more with the moderates.
Both groups of moderates however, if you’ve noticed so far, have generally voted in the same direction. What’s the difference between the Socially Conservative Moderates and the Low-Partisanship Moderates?
Though they have similar positions on many issues, wide differences really open up on race and immigration.
7. Immigration
Question: What do you think the U.S. government should do about immigration? Do you support or oppose each of the following?
Increase spending on border security by $25 billion, including building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico
The moderates actually support the border wall more than the conservatives do! They also support positions like reducing legal immigration by eliminating family migration, though by a smaller margin:
Question: What do you think the U.S. government should do about immigration? Do you support or oppose each of the following?
Reduce legal immigration by eliminating the visa lottery and ending family-based migration
Question: What do you think the U.S. government should do about immigration? Do you support or oppose each of the following?
Send to prison any person who has been deported from the United States and re-enters the United States.
Evidently, the moderates, who are a lot more likely to be opposed to Trump’s other policies, support a lot of his immigration policies.
This group of moderates show similar views on racial issues as well: they often agree with True Believers more than those calling themselves Conservatives do. Let’s take a few examples.
8. Racial Issues
Question: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors.
Question: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough, if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.
A majority of both true believers and socially conservative moderates agree with this statement. This statement: “It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough, if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.”
I think I can end this section on that point.
V. Summing up
On the back of this data, my answer is that there are four types of people who really approve of the job Trump is doing. In order of size:
True believers (58%): They are very politically engaged, and they support nearly every position of the Trump administration and the current Republican Party. They support immigration policies such as building a wall, they support withdrawing from international agreements, and they overwhelmingly believe that he did not collude with Russia.
Socially Conservative Moderates (20%): They refer to themselves as “Middle of the Road” more than anything else. They oppose Republican policies on healthcare, environment, and the economy. But they by and large share the opinions of True Believers on racial and immigration issues. This may be a potential reason for why they approve of the job Trump is doing.
Conservatives (15%): They support the Trump administration’s positions where they overlap, such as on the environment and the economy. But they also differ with Trump’s core believers on issues like immigration and withdrawing the US from world agreements.
Low-partisanship Moderates (7%): They refer to themselves as Middle of the Road, and in terms of politics, some even as weak democrats. They seem to be paradoxical Trump supporters: they strongly approve of the job Trump is doing, and yet they oppose most of his policies and positions.
If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say that the first two groups are the most likely to form the “Trump supporters” in the sense the question asks for. The third group, I’d guess, are mostly along for the ride (and the tax cuts).
Thanks for asking an interesting question!
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